While I'm known for saying that real estate is like weather and discussing it on a national level is like lumping all weather patterns together into one casserole dish but the season is upon us where people want projections along with highlight reel of what occurred over the last year so here is my best attempt at delivering you the goods.If 2024–2025 felt like a “stuck” housing market, tight affordability, homeowners reluctant to give up low rates, and buyers waiting for a break 2026 is shaping up to be more of a transition year than a boom or bust year. Most major forecasters expect more transactions, modest price growth, and an economy that keeps moving forward just not at a runaway pace.
Below is a buyer and seller friendly breakdown of what leading economists are projecting for home values, sales volume, mortgage rates, and consumer spending trends heading into 2026 and what to do with that information.Quick look back: What happened in 2024 and 2025?
2024: Fewer sales, but prices held up
- Existing-home sales in 2024 totaled about 4.06 million—widely cited as the lowest annual pace since the mid-1990s, largely due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory.
2025: “Same story, slightly better footing”
2025 remained close to a 4 million annual pace for existing home sales, with national prices still edging higher (not soaring).
- Price indexes show slower, smaller year over year gains compared with the post-2020 surge (i.e., the market “cooled,” but didn’t collapse). And let's all be honest that market was
What that means: The last two years were defined by affordability constraints and rate lock in. Many households simply couldn’t (or wouldn’t) move so volume stayed suppressed.The big 2026 theme: More movement, not a mania
Across major housing forecasters, the common thread is:
- Sales volume improves as life events force moves and affordability gradually improves, divorce, marriage, growing families, death, and yes foreclosures
- Price growth stays modest (positive, but not explosive)
- Rates likely ease somewhat, but remain high enough to keep buyers value-conscious and no one can really predict rates so best to not try, you can always refinance.
- Sales volume: expected to rise in 2026
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has highlighted expectations for a meaningful pickup in sales activity in 2026, driven by improving conditions and easing lock in effects.
- Fannie Mae’s January 2026 forecast also shows existing sales improving in 2026 versus 2024–2025.
Home values: modest appreciation is the “base case”
Forecast ranges vary, but many mainstream outlooks cluster around low single digit growth which is historically normal for the San Antonio market so no cause for alarm with that projection.
NAR commentary has suggested minimal home price growth (roughly in the low single digits).
Zillow projects about +1.2% home value growth in 2026.
- Redfin projects about +1% median sale price growth in 2026.
Translation: Most forecasters do not see a major national price drop in 2026; they see a market that grinds upward slowly, with wide variation by metro and neighborhood.Mortgage rates: likely “better,” but not “back to 4%”
One reason forecasters expect more activity: gradual rate improvement.
- Fannie Mae’s January 2026 outlook includes an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate around the low-6% range across 2026.
Why this matters: Even a 0.5%–1.0% move in rates can materially change affordability and buying power—especially for payment-sensitive buyers.The economy & spending trends going into 2026
Housing doesn’t move in a vacuum. Buyers and sellers should watch three economic signals: consumer spending, inflation, and job stability.
1) Consumers are still spending, but it’s uneven
Government data and major reporting show consumer spending supported late 2025 growth, with spending growth continuing into the end of the year.
- Retail sales were running higher year over year (with especially strong growth in non-store/online categories).
Real-world takeaway: Higher-income households have been more resilient than lower income households so demand may be stronger in move-up and “need to move” segments than in entry level segments.
2) Inflation is expected to keep easing (slowly)
- The Fed’s projections (as of late 2025) generally point toward inflation moving closer to the mid 2% range over time.
- CBO’s early 2026 outlook also discusses inflation moderating in 2026 versus 2025.
Why it matters for real estate: Easing inflation makes it easier for rates to come down helping affordability and encouraging transactions. Just because the Fed lowers rates doesn't mean mortgage companies automatically do too, they adjust their rates based on their projections for the economy.
3) 2026 growth outlook: steady, not sky high
- Some major private forecasts project solid (but not overheated) growth in 2026.
Bottom line: Most “base case” forecasts look like a normalizing economy, not a recession driven housing crash.2026: What this means if you’re buying
If you’re a buyer, your edge is strategy not waiting for a “perfect” rate
What may improve in 2026:
- More listings and choices as more sellers decide to move anyway (life events outweigh rate lock-in).
- More negotiating leverage than the peak frenzy years especially on homes that are overpriced or not presentation-ready (where days-on-market rises).
Smart buyer moves for 2026
Get fully underwritten (not just pre-qualified).
Ask your lender about temporary buydowns or refinance strategies if rates drop later.
- Focus on monthly payment comfort and resale fundamentals (school zones, layout, location, neighborhood desirability) more than “timing the market.”
2026: What this means if you’re selling
If you’re a seller, pricing and presentation are back in charge
With price growth projected to be modest, the market tends to reward homes that are:
- priced correctly from day one, DO NOT over price your home!
- clean, bright, staged, real talk: no one wants what no one wants make it look like an HGTV show (the after scene, not the before scenes
)
- easy for buyers to say “yes” to quickly (repairs handled, disclosures ready, strong photos)
Smart seller moves for 2026
Price for the market you’re in, not the market you remember. Modest forecasted appreciation means buyers will resist “hope pricing.”
Consider offering buyer-friendly terms (rate buydown credit, closing cost help) if that nets you a higher final price and cleaner contract.
- If you’re also buying, negotiate both sides: get strong terms on your sale and push for concessions on the purchase.
As aforementioned, real estate is like weather, it's specific to the area you're in, if you want to know more about your particular real estate market reach out to me and let's talk about what's happening on the streets of San Antonio and surrounding counties.
